El Nino likely in the final weeks as the world waits for La Nina and the potential impact of hurricane season
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center now gives an 85% chance of El Niño conditions disappearing when calculations for April are due next month, with continued cooling in the tropical Pacific likely leading to La Niño conditions by June.
COLLEGE PARK, Md. – El Niño is still here… barely.
Tropical Pacific conditions are still holding on to some above-average warmth in critical parts of the eastern and central regions that are just meeting the minimum threshold of at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) to maintain an El Niño Advisory, NOAA said in its monthly update Thursday.
But El Niño’s days are still numbered, NOAA predicts. Most forecast models point to continued cooling of waters in that area of the Pacific, with a 79% chance that El Niño conditions will end over the next month.
That’s a statement already issued by some other national weather agencies around the world, including Australia, which uses different reporting methods than NOAA to already declare El Niño last month.
When neither La Niña nor El Niño controls what is known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, it is considered a neutral status, sometimes called La Nada.
NOAA says that despite prolonged ocean warmth, the atmosphere in the tropical Pacific continues to show signs of weakening El Niño’s influence and moving into neutral status.
Still likely looming on the horizon: a reversal to the opposite La Niña pattern, which could improve the upcoming hurricane season.
NOAA sea surface temperature map. (NOAA)
AUSTRALIA DECLARES EL NINO OVER IN TROPICAL PACIFIC
Weather impacts of a neutral event
An exit from El Niño to neutral status would likely not mean any immediate weather changes for North America, but the FOX Forecast Center will monitor the impacts throughout the upcoming summer and hurricane season.
Meteorological summer begins on June 1, the same date that the annual tropical cyclone season begins.
Neutral years have ranged from only a handful of tropical systems to those among the most active on record, but seasons in the neutral regime tend to be more influential than those that occur during El Niño.
In terms of temperature, all occurrences of neutral events in the past two decades have produced summers that had above-average or well-above-average temperatures.
The neutral ENSO summer of 2019 was the warmest season on record for North America, with record heat on both the West and East coasts.
Prospects for summer temperatures. (NOAA)
WHAT IS A NEUTRAL PATTERN?
La Niña will boost the approaching hurricane season?
While neutral status is on deck, it doesn’t look like it will be too long before the tropical Pacific cools straight into a La Niña pattern.
NOAA believes there is a 69% chance that water temperatures will cool more than -0.5 degrees Celsius by late summer with an 83% chance by fall.
However, experts at Colorado State University and many others believe that the coming La Niña is playing a significant role in intensifying the 2024 hurricane season.
La Niña patterns in summer and early fall tend to weaken upper-level winds in the Atlantic Ocean basin that would otherwise contribute to the separation of emerging storms.
The impact of the La Nina hurricane season. (FOX Time)
Researchers say they expect 23 named storms to form in 2024, 11 of which could reach hurricane status. Five of the 11 hurricanes are expected to reach major hurricane status with winds of at least 115 mph.
2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON COULD BE AMONG THE MOST ACTIVE EVER ON RECORD, EXPERTS PREDICT
ENSO forecast models showing a drop in ocean temperatures to a La Nina state. (Columbia School of Climate, Columbia University / FOX Weather)
But even with or without La Niña, which helps create hurricanes with a favorable upper part–levels, a number of years and more than record ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are also fueling fears of a very active hurricane season on the horizon.
RECORD WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN ENDES AFTER 421 DAYS
La Niña: Flipping the script for winter across the US
As we exit hurricane season at the end of the year and march into fall and winter, the La Niña phase is typically associated with dry weather in the southern US and cooler, wetter weather in the Pacific Northwest and parts of Sev.
It would be the opposite of what we generally saw last El Niño winter.
California took the brunt of several storms—many of which were atmospheric river storms—leaving much of the state well above average in precipitation.
Atmospheric rivers bring the lake to Death Valley National Park
Death Valley National Park ranger Abby Wines explains how a temporary lake could have formed in California’s Death Valley National Park. The lake is deep enough that some people have kayaked on it. February 21, 2024
As the strong Pacific jet stream doggedly hugged the south, several rain storms passed through Texas and the Gulf Coast. Florida suffered one of its cloudiest periods from December to January, according to Alaska climatologist Brian Brettschneider.
Meanwhile, apart from a severe arctic outbreak in mid-January caused by the polar vortex, it has been a very mild winter in the northern part of the country.
Minneapolis got just 29.5 inches of snow — nearly 22 inches below average — and people were able to play golf and install swimming pools during the winter in a region better known for sub-zero temperatures and blizzards.
The family of St. Paul installs an in-ground pool in February in the middle of the Minnesota winter
FOX 9 Minneapolis reporter Rob Olson covers the business of St. Paul taking advantage of Minnesota’s mild winter with an early start to summer preparations.
Swimming and golf could return to more of a summer event if La Nina takes hold next winter.
NOAA’s next regular monthly update on the ENSO pattern is scheduled for June 13.